Check out the latest bracket predictions using the updated Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
Only 2 teams between both the girls and boys side have won a Sectional title, since I’ve been running the numbers the last 5+ years, that haven’t been classified as a “Favorite” or “Contender”. The 2017-18 Voorheesville girls team were considered a “Dark Horse” pre-tournament took home the crown as the #6 seed. Last year the Ichabod boys team won Class B as a #6 seed and a tournament “Dark Horse” accoriding to pre-tournament projections.
Class AA Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class AA Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Ballston Spa | 100.00% | 63.09% | 38.26% | 23.89% | Contender |
| CBA | 100.00% | 51.17% | 28.41% | 13.28% | Contender |
| Saratoga | 72.69% | 39.51% | 19.42% | 8.81% | Dark Horse |
| Green Tech | 59.36% | 31.17% | 14.65% | 8.02% | Dark Horse |
| Bethlehem | 54.95% | 29.42% | 13.75% | 7.49% | Dark Horse |
| Mekeel C.A. | 50.03% | 24.44% | 13.29% | 6.06% | Dark Horse |
| Shaker | 49.97% | 24.39% | 13.26% | 6.04% | Dark Horse |
| Schenectady | 54.52% | 29.43% | 13.79% | 5.95% | Dark Horse |
| Colonie | 51.39% | 19.29% | 9.29% | 4.65% | Long Shot |
| Niskayuna | 45.05% | 21.90% | 9.18% | 4.55% | Long Shot |
| Albany | 48.61% | 17.61% | 8.24% | 4.01% | Long Shot |
| Shen | 45.48% | 22.57% | 9.56% | 3.70% | Long Shot |
| La Salle | 40.64% | 17.51% | 6.63% | 3.01% | Long Shot |
| Guilderland | 27.31% | 8.49% | 2.26% | 0.54% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Ballston Spa has been the best team in Class AA this season but there are so many teams that are capable of winning this classification it’s hard to say that they are a clear cut favorite. There are only two bye’s in this bracket (Ballston Spa & CBA) so that helps each of their chances for sure by not having to play an extra game against a team that is nearly their equal.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
A bunch. Looking at the year long computer rankings there are 10 teams below Ballston Spa within 4 points of each other. It’s the most parity I’ve seen in any class (boys or girls) since I’ve been putting these numbers together. #4 Bethlehem, #5 Green Tech, #6 Schenectady, #7 Shaker, #10 Mekeel Christian could easily get to the final. The 8/9 winner between Albany and Colonie could give #1 Ballston Spa all they can handle.
Additional thoughts:
Niskayuna isn’t a typical #13 seed. They are only about three points worse than their first round opponent #4 Bethlehem. An “upset” in that game wouldn’t surprise me. Same goes for other double digit seeds Shen and Mekeel Christian.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class AA | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Deavion Springsteen | Albany | 17 |
| Malachi Perry | Albany | 14.8 |
| Nicholas Verdile | Ballston Spa | 20.9 |
| Mike Miller | Ballston Spa | 16.1 |
| Benjamin Phillips | Ballston Spa | 11.1 |
| Cam LaClair | Bethlehem | 14.1 |
| Kieran Barnes | Bethlehem | 12.6 |
| Logan Yohe | Bethlehem | 11.3 |
| Caden Bernardo | Bethlehem | 11.2 |
| Jayden Osinski | CBA | 10.9 |
| Kaelen Leak | CBA | 10.8 |
| Brandon Gordon | Colonie | 13.9 |
| Trey Von Owens-Cody | Colonie | 11.2 |
| Cam Trimarchi | Colonie | 11.1 |
| Haisi Mayben | Green Tech | 19.8 |
| Ramere Brown | Green Tech | 11 |
| Adam Myers | La Salle | 17.9 |
| Isiah Rose | Mekeel Christian | 18.6 |
| Nykim Taylor | Mekeel Christian | 13.7 |
| Terrence Robinson | Mekeel Christian | 13.3 |
| Oryan DeJesus | Mekeel Christian | 12.3 |
| Sam Booth | Niskayuna | 16.9 |
| Ethan Gilson | Niskayuna | 12.6 |
| Andrew Stallmer | Saratoga Springs | 15.3 |
| Ryan Farr | Saratoga Springs | 13.8 |
| Hutton Snyder | Saratoga Springs | 11.7 |
| Damari Holder | Schenectady | 20 |
| Christian Gomez | Schenectady | 13.5 |
| Quymaine Haggray | Schenectady | 11 |
| Zacharie Matulu | Shaker | 18.1 |
| Andrew Massaroni | Shenendehowa | 13.3 |
Class A Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class A Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Amsterdam | 100.00% | 74.06% | 45.26% | 27.15% | Favorite |
| Hudson Falls | 100.00% | 68.78% | 39.45% | 20.53% | Contender |
| Troy | 100.00% | 64.70% | 34.47% | 17.05% | Contender |
| Lansingburgh | 100.00% | 60.49% | 28.95% | 15.00% | Contender |
| Burnt Hills | 77.09% | 35.03% | 15.23% | 7.21% | Dark Horse |
| Gloversville | 64.59% | 25.88% | 11.27% | 4.48% | Long Shot |
| Columbia | 64.71% | 19.45% | 7.93% | 3.15% | Long Shot |
| Queensbury | 51.85% | 16.60% | 6.51% | 2.23% | Long Shot |
| Averill Park | 48.15% | 14.63% | 5.48% | 1.79% | Long Shot |
| Mohonasen | 35.41% | 9.41% | 2.81% | 0.75% | Long Shot |
| South Glens Falls | 35.29% | 6.49% | 1.77% | 0.47% | Long Shot |
| Scotia | 22.91% | 4.49% | 0.86% | 0.18% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Amsterdam. They’ve handled #2 seed Hudson Falls twice this season, the last game being a runaway late in the season.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Lansingburgh out of the Colonial Council and #5 Burnt HIlls from the Suburban Council. One of those teams will get their shot at #1 Amsterdam in the semi-finals.
Additional thoughts:
Hudson Falls and Troy could easily string together three wins to take down the bracket. While Amsterdam is considered the favorite they are not unbeatable.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class A | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Jhai Vellon | Amsterdam | 16.1 |
| Cesar Thompson | Amsterdam | 15.7 |
| Victor Dueno | Amsterdam | 15.1 |
| JaShean Vann | Amsterdam | 11.3 |
| Ben Kline | Burnt Hills | 16.2 |
| Alex Doin | Burnt Hills | 12.2 |
| Evan Rainville | Columbia | 14.8 |
| Ian Fisher-Layton | Columbia | 10.7 |
| Mariano Dicaterino | Gloversville | 18.8 |
| James Collar | Gloversville | 13.6 |
| Peyton Smith | Hudson Falls | 24.9 |
| Wesley McIntyre | Lansingburgh | 19.9 |
| Aayden Green | Lansingburgh | 14 |
| James Oliver | Lansingburgh | 12.8 |
| Trevon Bailey | Queensbury | 16.9 |
| Chase Baker | Queensbury | 10.6 |
| Brady Smith | South Glens Falls | 16.7 |
| Stetson Merritt | Troy | 18.3 |
| Terrance Clark | Troy | 17.3 |
| Daniel Covington | Troy | 15 |
Class B Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class B Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Catholic Cent. | 86.29% | 64.50% | 48.82% | 31.26% | Favorite |
| Tamarac | 84.77% | 65.11% | 43.07% | 25.19% | Favorite |
| Glens Falls | 87.80% | 60.07% | 30.55% | 15.10% | Contender |
| Fonda | 85.58% | 52.01% | 19.89% | 8.50% | Dark Horse |
| ICC | 58.40% | 19.70% | 10.84% | 4.57% | Long Shot |
| Schalmont | 71.72% | 30.19% | 11.64% | 4.32% | Long Shot |
| Watervliet | 61.76% | 30.29% | 9.88% | 3.63% | Long Shot |
| Mechanicville | 52.55% | 15.77% | 6.28% | 2.06% | Long Shot |
| NDBG | 41.60% | 11.19% | 5.23% | 1.80% | Long Shot |
| Schuylerville | 47.45% | 13.28% | 4.98% | 1.53% | Long Shot |
| Cohoes | 38.24% | 14.55% | 3.39% | 0.90% | Long Shot |
| Ravena/BP | 13.71% | 4.62% | 1.64% | 0.40% | Long Shot |
| Johnstown/CA | 15.23% | 5.85% | 1.67% | 0.38% | Long Shot |
| Hudson | 28.28% | 6.58% | 1.35% | 0.26% | Long Shot |
| Taconic Hills/Cairo | 12.20% | 3.16% | 0.46% | 0.06% | Long Shot |
| Greenville | 14.42% | 3.15% | 0.31% | 0.04% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Catholic Central and Tamarac. They’ve been the two best teams in this class all season. The Crusaders upset favorite Tamarac last season to advance to the finals (losing to Ichabod Crane). A long awaited rematch would take place in the final if both teams can navigate their side of the bracket.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Fonda, #5 Watervliet, and #6 Schalmont all have enough talent and are well coached to make a serious run.
Additional thoughts:
#3 Glens Falls have won six of its last seven games and their only losses this season are to Class A schools. (15-5 on the season). A potential semi-final round game with Tamarac would be interesting.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class B | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Esiasyn Starr | Bishop Gibbons | 17.8 |
| Jaquare Jones | Bishop Gibbons | 14.3 |
| Dequawn Gheen | Bishop Gibbons | 11.8 |
| Zackarhi Archie | Bishop Gibbons | 11.7 |
| Ryan Savoie Jr. | Broadalbin-Perth | 20.4 |
| Samuel Hotaling | Broadalbin-Perth | 12.5 |
| Darien Moore | Catholic Central | 23.7 |
| Sei’Mir Roberson | Catholic Central | 14.9 |
| Nick Riley | Catholic Central | 10.9 |
| Chris Rogers | Cairo-Durham | 12.9 |
| Marquay Tanksley | Cohoes | 15.7 |
| Bryce Hancock | Cohoes | 11.3 |
| Robert Hughes | Coxsackie-Athens | 11.6 |
| Jackson Cusack | Fonda | 14.5 |
| Kellen Driscoll | Glens Falls | 16.6 |
| Cooper Nadler | Glens Falls | 12.2 |
| Cody Thompson | Greenville | 12.8 |
| Brett Larson | Greenville | 12.8 |
| Keith Robinson | Hudson | 21.4 |
| Jordan Cunningham | Hudson | 13.8 |
| Malaky Payton | Hudson | 10.8 |
| Alex Schmidt | Ichabod Crane | 21 |
| Daniel Warner | Ichabod Crane | 15.7 |
| Braden Jones | Johnstown | 17.9 |
| Ryan Hoyt | Johnstown | 13.1 |
| Colin Richardson | Mechanicville | 16.4 |
| Fen Egan | Mechanicville | 12.2 |
| Jack Reif | Ravena | 11.5 |
| Isaiah Smith | Schalmont | 17 |
| Elijah Smith | Schalmont | 14.8 |
| Luke Sherman | Schuylerville | 22.2 |
| Zach Rowe | Taconic Hills | 12.1 |
| Troy Super | Taconic Hills | 10.9 |
| Joey Poulin | Tamarac | 23.9 |
| Mike D’Agostino | Tamarac | 14.3 |
| James Blake II | Tamarac | 12.9 |
| Daheem Wilson | Watervliet | 20.3 |
| Jay Chaplin | Watervliet | 17.7 |
Class CC Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class CC Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Stillwater | 100.00% | 82.90% | 50.75% | 32.24% | Favorite |
| Chatham | 100.00% | 70.35% | 43.26% | 21.31% | Contender |
| Hoosick Falls | 100.00% | 51.51% | 23.48% | 12.53% | Contender |
| Voorheesville | 75.62% | 47.99% | 24.88% | 11.38% | Contender |
| Greenwich | 100.00% | 48.49% | 21.42% | 11.12% | Contender |
| Granville | 100.00% | 43.16% | 16.69% | 5.49% | Dark Horse |
| Maple Hill | 72.39% | 25.18% | 11.69% | 4.02% | Long Shot |
| Mayfield | 54.12% | 9.91% | 2.66% | 0.78% | Long Shot |
| Rensselaer | 24.38% | 8.85% | 2.35% | 0.51% | Long Shot |
| Lake George | 45.88% | 7.20% | 1.69% | 0.44% | Long Shot |
| Berlin-New Lebanon | 27.61% | 4.48% | 1.13% | 0.18% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Stillwater. They return a few players from their state championship runner up team including standouts Lukas Lilac and Jaxson Mueller. The Warriors have been tested playing in the Wasaren League and are the team to beat.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification.
#4 Hoosick Falls, #5 Greenwich, #6 Voorheesville and #7 Maple Hill. The 4/5 game will produce a team advancing to play most likely Stillwater and those teams are in the same league and familiar with the Warriors. #6 Voorheesville is underseeded according to the season long #’s. As the six seed the Blackbirds have an edge over the #3 seed Granville to win two games and get to the semi-finals. #7 Maple Hill, with a win, would take on their Patroon Conference rival Chatham in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats defend well enough to make that matchup interesting.
Additional thoughts:
#2 Chatham is athletic and can score the ball from many different players and spots on the floor. The big question is can they defend well enough to win three games. A potential final game with #1 Stillwater would give them a rematch of their season opening game where they lost 55-51 in a great game.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class CC | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Matt Thorsen | Chatham | 18.1 |
| Jacob Baccaro | Chatham | 13.4 |
| Caleb Nelson | Granville | 25.6 |
| Cody Nelson | Granville | 12 |
| Joe Skiff | Greenwich | 18.5 |
| Jacob Ziehm | Greenwich | 13.9 |
| Jake Sparks | Hoosick Falls | 18.2 |
| Jack Welch | Lake George | 11.7 |
| Brady Cole | Maple Hill | 13.1 |
| Trevor Ruberti | Mayfield | 19.9 |
| Cameron Abdella | Mayfield | 11.3 |
| Malachi Spickermen | Rensselaer | 11.1 |
| Lukas Lilac | Stillwater | 17.6 |
| Jaxon Mueller | Stillwater | 17 |
| Carson Carrow | Voorheesville | 21.4 |
| Seth Wilson | Voorheesville | 11.3 |
Class C Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class C Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Hoosic Valley | 100.00% | 88.93% | 74.79% | 46.35% | Favorite |
| Duanesburg | 100.00% | 86.59% | 69.20% | 38.54% | Favorite |
| Berne-Knox | 85.91% | 58.71% | 18.14% | 5.86% | Dark Horse |
| Saratoga Catholic | 100.00% | 65.42% | 15.52% | 4.73% | Long Shot |
| Hadley-Luzerne | 65.63% | 27.60% | 5.70% | 1.26% | Long Shot |
| Warrensburg | 59.54% | 22.71% | 3.67% | 0.79% | Long Shot |
| Galway | 54.20% | 7.83% | 3.35% | 0.70% | Long Shot |
| Whitehall | 55.29% | 6.73% | 2.97% | 0.66% | Long Shot |
| Waterford | 45.80% | 5.58% | 2.17% | 0.40% | Long Shot |
| Schoharie | 44.71% | 4.34% | 1.69% | 0.32% | Long Shot |
| Fort Plain | 40.46% | 11.88% | 1.36% | 0.21% | Long Shot |
| OESJ | 34.37% | 9.72% | 1.15% | 0.15% | Long Shot |
| Cambridge | 14.09% | 3.96% | 0.28% | 0.02% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
#1 Duanesburg and #2 Hoosic Valley are the heavy favorites to meet in the title game. Their chances of winning add up to almost 85% so a title game that didn’t feature these two teams would be a huge upset. Both have been the best two teams in the whole Class CC/C classification all year. Committee seeds Duanesburgh higher, computer rankings have Hoosic Valley slightly better.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Berne-Knox could win two games to advance to play Duanesburg but in their three matchups this year with the Eagles they have lost by 26, 25 and 26. Their run most likely ends if they face Duanesburg again in the semi-finals.
Additional thoughts:
It’s going to be hard to beat the top two seeds (Duanesburg and Hoosic Valley). There’s no way around saying that in this classification. While there may be some good opening round contests I’d be shocked if any team stays within double digits of #1 and #2.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class C | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Dayne Coates | Berne-Knox | 19.5 |
| AJ Wright | Berne-Knox | 16 |
| Blake Shaver | Berne-Knox | 11.9 |
| Travis Yurschik | Cambridge | 11 |
| Jeffrey Mulhern | Duanesburg | 19 |
| Ethan Thompson | Duanesburg | 11.5 |
| Austin Van Gorder | Fort Plain | 12.1 |
| Stephen Gray | Fort Plain | 11 |
| Josh Lovelass | Galway | 12.9 |
| Casey Clarke | Galway | 10.9 |
| Isaiah Eckler | Hoosic Valley | 21.6 |
| Logan Reilly | Hoosic Valley | 13 |
| Colton Christensen | OESJ | 17.3 |
| Colin Eakin | OESJ | 13.1 |
| Justin Duscher | Saratoga Catholic | 12.4 |
| Aiden Dunne | Saratoga Catholic | 11.6 |
| Matt Bernhardt | Schoharie | 11.4 |
| Preston DiGiovanni | Schoharie | 11.2 |
| Steve Schloss | Warrensburg | 20.7 |
| Evan LaPell | Warrensburg | 17.5 |
| Derrick Pontore | Waterford | 16.6 |
Class D Breakdown before the tournament starts.
Computer Rankings projection of winning the tournament.
| Class D Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Rd 16 | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| North Warren | 100.00% | 77.51% | 55.96% | 37.33% | Favorite |
| Northville | 100.00% | 80.27% | 58.15% | 30.31% | Favorite |
| Argyle | 100.00% | 68.96% | 26.59% | 13.32% | Contender |
| Loudonville Christian | 100.00% | 61.52% | 23.15% | 7.87% | Dark Horse |
| Hartford | 76.02% | 20.29% | 10.00% | 4.37% | Long Shot |
| Hawthorne Valley | 100.00% | 38.48% | 10.67% | 2.61% | Long Shot |
| Germantown | 100.00% | 31.04% | 6.93% | 2.22% | Long Shot |
| Fort Ann | 58.32% | 12.90% | 5.61% | 1.40% | Long Shot |
| Heatly | 41.68% | 6.83% | 2.42% | 0.46% | Long Shot |
| Doane Stuart | 23.98% | 2.20% | 0.53% | 0.11% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
North Warren and Northville. North Warren took the Adirondack title game over Granville and has a balanced offense with three double digit scorers. Northville is looking to return to the title game for the second straight year (last year they lost 52-45 to OESJ) and are led by 1000 point career scorer Jacob Frank.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Loudonville Christian is paced by double figure scorers Mike Marshall and Jared Pratt.
Additional thoughts:
#3 Argyle has a dynamic scorer in Hunter Ingram but will need more contributions if they are going to win a potential semi-final game vs league opponent North Warren.
Players to watch on the top 150 scoring leaders posted on the Times Union website.
| Class D | ||
| Player | Team | PPG |
| Hunter Ingram | Argyle | 26.9 |
| Brandon Saunders | Argyle | 13.6 |
| Dylan Brown | Fort Ann | 14.9 |
| Cal Boucher | Fort Edward | 10.9 |
| Ray Harrington | Hartford | 21.1 |
| Austin Wells | Hartford | 10.9 |
| Oliver Towe | Hawthorne Valley | 22.4 |
| Henri Towe | Hawthorne Valley | 16.8 |
| LJ McCarthy | Heatly | 11.3 |
| Mike Marshall | Loudonville Christian | 17.5 |
| Jared Pratt | Loudonville Christian | 11.7 |
| Sean Evans | North Warren | 18 |
| Derrick Tyrell | North Warren | 12.8 |
| Semaj Cuyler | North Warren | 12.3 |
| Jacob Frank | Northville | 19.1 |