Which classifications (Boys/Girls) will be most competitive in Sectionals?

After looking at the site’s updated computer rankings I wanted to take a look and see which Section 2 classifications may be the most competitive in the 2016-17 Sectionals.

On the chart below you’ll see the 10 classes (Boys/Girls) listed with their overall standard deviation for all schools in the class, then just the top 4 teams of that class, lastly the top 8 from that class.

I spoke about standard deviation in a blog post last week. It’s just a simple way to look at a group of teams see how they compare to one another. The smaller the number, the smaller the difference is between the groups listed. Lower number = teams are closer in strength to each other.

You can take a look at the sortable chart here. Click the column heading to sort the columns in different orders.

Class	Overall Std Deviation	Top 4 Std Deviation	Top 8 Std Deviation
Class AA Boys	14.23	1.6	3.86
Class A Boys	12.27	4.23	8.29
Class B Boys	13.41	3.74	5.94
Class C Boys	11	2.1	3.82
Class D Boys	15.58	6.24	8.73
Class AA Girls	16.88	5.41	8.07
Class A Girls	18.69	8.77	9.15
Class B Girls	18.79	4.14	8.86
Class C Girls	16.4	2.84	4.88
Class D Girls	17	5.3	6.65

The numbers below are assuming that the top 4 & 8 teams in the computer rankings are playing in the final 8 and final 4. (This is just to give you an idea of how close or far apart the higher ranked teams in each class are. I have no idea how committee will seed the teams so I’ll do this again once the teams are actually picked in Mid-February)

Quarterfinal round games (top 8 teams) showing which classes may produce close results.

Class	Top 8 Std Deviation
Class C Boys	3.82
Class AA Boys	3.86
Class C Girls	4.88
Class B Boys	5.94
Class D Girls	6.65

 

Ok. Now we’ll take a look at how the top 4 ranked teams in each class look assuming we get final four match-ups close to the current computer rankings. Ranked in order of projected competitiveness.

Class	Top 4 Std Deviation
Class AA Boys	1.60
Class C Boys	2.10
Class C Girls	2.84
Class B Boys	3.74
Class B Girls	4.14

 

Want to know which classes the computer rankings think will be least competitive in the quarterfinal and final four rounds? Here they are.

Quarterfinal round games (top 8 teams) showing which classes may produce wider margin results.

Class	Top 8 Std Deviation
Class A Girls	9.15
Class B Girls	8.86
Class D Boys	8.73
Class A Boys	8.29
Class AA Girls	8.07

 

Here’s a look at what the current rankings think will produce the least competitive semi-final games.

Class	Top 4 Std Deviation
Class A Girls	8.77
Class D Boys	6.24
Class AA Girls	5.41
Class D Girls	5.3
Class A Boys	4.23

 

There’s still plenty of time left in the season for teams to change their ranking. This is just taking an early look to see which games may be a bit more competitive in the quarterfinal and semi-final rounds of the tournament.