I wanted to take a look, from a numbers standpoint, how competitive Section 2 Basketball (Boys’/Girls’) games are when comparing them to other College/Pro Basketball leagues. I’ve tracked almost 1000 game scores combined for Section 2 Boys’ and Girls’ hoop this season to get the averages below.
Here’s a chart that lists each level I’ve researched with the average winning margin of each game and the standard deviation of scores. (Margin and standard deviation numbers for all leagues other than Section 2 Basketball are from masseyratings.com)
Standard deviation is defined by a quantity calculated to indicate the extent of deviation for a group as a whole. Which means the smaller the number the more consistent/less volatile the scores are for that league. Smaller number = more competitive league.
| Men/Boys’ Teams | ||
| Level | Avg. Margin | Standard Deviation |
| NBA | 11.35 | 8.41 |
| NCAA D1 | 13.07 | 10.18 |
| NCAA D2 | 11.9 | 9.24 |
| NCAA 3 | 12.48 | 9.74 |
| NCAA Junior College | 14.29 | 11.6 |
| Section 2 Boys’ | 16.83 | 12.19 |
| Women/Girls’ Teams | ||
| Level | Avg. Margin | Standard Deviation |
| WNBA | 10.75 | 7.69 |
| NCAA D1 | 15.86 | 12.26 |
| NCAA D2 | 14.51 | 10.96 |
| NCAA 3 | 17.09 | 12.57 |
| NCAA Junior College | 22.18 | 18.08 |
| Section 2 Girls’ | 20.78 | 15.56 |
Section 2 Boys’ games are slightly more competitive on average than the Girls’ games. From a competitive standpoint they compare to a Men’s Junior College game or a Division 3 Women’s game.
The Section 2 Girls’ margin of victory and standard deviation falls between a Women’s NCAA D3 game or a Women’s Junior College game.
It’s also interesting that both Men/Women Division 2 games are more competitive then Division 1 games. For years I’ve heard the College of St. Rose Men’s Coach, Brian Beaury, talk about how competitive the Division 2 level is as well as their conference the Northeast 10. (I agree by the way, it’s just funny seeing the numbers agree with it). The Northeast 10 Men’s conference is even more competitive then the total D2 averages with an average margin of 10.3 and standard deviation of 7.66.
I also broke the Section 2 Boys’/Girls’ games down into 2 other categories to give you an idea of what percentage of games have a 10 point margin or less and a 5 point margin or less.
| Winning Margin | Section 2 Boys’ | Section 2 Girls’ |
| Less than 10 pts | 38.5% | 31.9% |
| Less than 5 points | 17.2% | 15.5% |
So if we combine the 2 sets of scores we should expect a game to be within 10 points 1 out of every 3 games we go to. If you are looking for a down to the wire finish ( final game margin 5 points or less) you should expect that 1 out of every 6 games.