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Section 2 Basketball Blog

2019-20 Boys Bracket Computer Predictions

Check out the latest bracket projections using the updated Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:

Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:

>= 25% chance to win= Favorite

>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender

>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse

< 5% chance to win= Long Shot

 

Class AA Breakdown before the tournament starts.

bracket image from Section2boysbasketball.org

Class AA Boys Winning Winning Winning Winning Computer
  Rd 16 QT. Final Semi Champ Projection
           
Shenendehowa 100.00% 73.88% 57.14% 34.37% Favorite
Green Tech 100.00% 77.29% 56.19% 34.29% Favorite
Saratoga 100.00% 57.15% 20.72% 8.55% Dark Horse
Bethlehem 66.46% 39.41% 13.15% 4.91% Long Shot
Niskayuna 68.05% 35.34% 10.68% 3.64% Long Shot
Colonie 57.37% 26.36% 8.62% 3.24% Long Shot
La Salle 52.11% 14.04% 7.84% 2.91% Long Shot
CBA 47.89% 12.08% 6.49% 2.29% Long Shot
Schenectady 50.92% 11.73% 5.26% 1.79% Long Shot
Columbia 49.08% 10.97% 4.82% 1.60% Long Shot
Guilderland 42.63% 16.49% 4.39% 1.37% Long Shot
Albany 33.54% 14.37% 2.89% 0.68% Long Shot
Ballston Spa 31.95% 10.88% 1.81% 0.36% Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. Shenendehowa and Green Tech.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Yes. If I told you which one I thought it would be I wouldn’t be honest. The next 9, yes 9 teams after the top two are separated by seven points according to the season long computer rankings. That’s just over two baskets for nine teams. Insanely close. Good luck figuring out which of the lower seeds strings together a couple nice wins to get to the semi-finals. Maybe none of them and the top four advance but I wouldn’t count on it.

Additional thoughts:

Each week the middle part of Class AA has leaped frogged one another and then switched spots the next  week. Shen and Green Tech can be beat even though they have proved to be the two highest seeds based on their regular season play. The bracket is deep.

Players to watch: Kevin Seel II, Albany, Isaiah Austin, Albany, Keegan Zoller, Ballston Spa, Marko Gibbons, Bethlehem, Will Davis, Bethlehem, Hagen Foley, CBA, Marcus Shelton, Colonie, Brendan Coyle, Colonie, Frank Rainville, Columbia, Joey Alamprese, Columbia, Justin Owens, Green Tech, Kemore Johnson, Green Tech, Mazziah Thorpe, Green Tech, Joshua Rodriguez, Green Tech, Ryan Teaney, Guilderland, Billy Lia, Guilderland, Bo Catherwood, La Salle, Gabe Lucarelli, La Salle, Kaylon Dickson, La Salle, Sean St. Lucia, Niskayuna, Ethan St. Lucia, Niskayuna, Aidan Holmes, Saratoga Springs, Michael Rogan, Saratoga Springs, Josh Winfield, Schenectady, Kareem Sanders, Schenectady,
Jake Reinisch, Shenendehowa, Andrew Martin, Shenendehowa, Devin Dzikas, Shenendehowa, Lucas Seyoum, Shenendehowa


Class A Breakdown before the tournament starts.

bracket image from Section2boysbasketball.org


Class A Boys Winning Winning Winning Winning Computer
  Rd 16 QT. Final Semi Champ Projection
           
Mekeel C.A. 100.00% 91.14% 76.23% 61.07% Favorite
Lansingburgh 100.00% 73.98% 40.74% 12.68% Contender
Averill Park 100.00% 61.02% 32.72% 9.65% Dark Horse
Gloversville 88.13% 62.02% 15.43% 7.92% Dark Horse
Troy 81.31% 36.14% 17.44% 4.41% Long Shot
Queensbury 81.00% 31.96% 4.73% 1.69% Long Shot
Hudson Falls 72.66% 22.34% 7.96% 1.38% Long Shot
Mohonasen 58.40% 5.98% 2.42% 0.83% Long Shot
Amsterdam 41.60% 2.89% 0.95% 0.26% Long Shot
Burnt Hills 27.34% 3.67% 0.62% 0.04% Long Shot
Scotia 18.69% 2.84% 0.52% 0.04% Long Shot
Catholic Cent. 11.87% 3.32% 0.14% 0.02% Long Shot
South Glens Falls 19.00% 2.70% 0.10% 0.01% Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. Mekeel Christian is playing great basketball and will be tough to beat.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

#4 seed Gloversville and #5 seed Queensbury. Queesnbury has defeated Gloversville in both contests this year giving the Dragons 2 of their three losses. A potential quarterfinal battle, and a third meeting is possible, if both teams win their opening round games.

Additional thoughts:

Averill Park from the Suburban Council and Lansingburgh of the Colonial Council both have quality wins on their resume. I wouldn’t be surprised if either one of them gave the upper half of the bracket fits in Glens Falls.

Players to watch: Yandeel Vazquez, Amsterdam, Matt Lettko, Averill Park, Aidan Giaquinto, Burnt Hills, Alex Jameson, Burnt Hills, Jackson Brown, Catholic Central, Dante Bouchard, Gloversville, Joseph Rowback, Gloversville, Johnathan Beagle, Hudson Falls, Jack Hogan, Hudson Falls, Riley Maddison, Hudson Falls, Isaiah Knight, Lansingburgh, Vinny Tario, Lansingburgh, Alex Barnhill, Mekeel Christian Academy, Ozzy DeJesus, Mekeel Christian Academy, Jonan White, Mekeel Christian Academy, Ricky Rollins, Mekeel Christian Academy, Shawn Gillisslee, Mohonasen, Alexander Gannon, Mohonasen, Bryce Bleibtrey, Queensbury, Matthew Conlon, Queensbury, Sean Collins, Queensbury, Antonio Cianfarani, Scotia, Jon Maniacek, South Glens Falls, Cam Woodard, South Glens Falls, Marquis Hamby, Troy,


Class B Breakdown before the tournament starts.

bracket image from Section2boysbasketball.org


Class B Boys Winning Winning Winning Winning Computer
  Rd 16 QT. Final Semi Champ Projection
           
Schalmont 88.98% 62.51% 42.87% 27.87% Favorite
Catskill 83.39% 59.10% 41.24% 23.41% Contender
Glens Falls 65.00% 35.85% 15.52% 7.91% Dark Horse
Mechanicville 73.49% 41.25% 18.04% 7.41% Dark Horse
NDBG 68.96% 27.35% 14.71% 7.40% Dark Horse
Watervliet 60.24% 32.64% 13.80% 6.88% Dark Horse
Broadalbin-Perth 64.51% 35.66% 15.26% 6.13% Dark Horse
Fonda 50.53% 17.95% 8.87% 3.21% Long Shot
Hoosick Falls 49.47% 17.35% 8.48% 3.03% Long Shot
Bishop Maginn 39.76% 17.51% 5.76% 2.31% Long Shot
Ravena 35.00% 14.01% 4.15% 1.51% Long Shot
Cohoes 35.49% 14.57% 4.32% 1.17% Long Shot
Hudson 31.04% 7.33% 2.54% 0.81% Long Shot
Greenwich/Schuylerville 16.61% 5.60% 1.87% 0.41% Long Shot
Greenville 26.51% 8.52% 1.92% 0.39% Long Shot
Tamarac/Coxsackie 11.02% 2.80% 0.65% 0.14% Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Schalmont and Catskill. The Sabres play in the tougher conference and have tested themselves in non league play so they should be ready. Catskill has looked great dominating the Patroon Conference this year. Catskill’s bracket draw according to the numbers looks a bit easier than Schalmont’s.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Yes, a bunch. #4 Mechanicville,#5 Broadalbin-Perth, #6 Watervliet, #7 Bishop Gibbons, #8 Fonda and #9 Hoosick Falls.

Additional thoughts:

This class is full of good teams. Schalmont over the last three years has gone out in the quarter finals, final vs Mekeel Christian and last year in the final vs Glens Falls. The next logical step is for them to win it all. It won’t be easy as they will be tested from the quarter finals on this year.

Players to watch: Noah Foster, Bishop Gibbons, Rodney Parker, Bishop Gibbons, Todd Williamson, Bishop Gibbons, Nacier Hundley, Bishop Gibbons, Ja’Nyve Smith, Bishop Maginn, Massiah Galloway, Bishop Maginn, Dante Calderone, Broadalbin-Perth, Jackson Sassanella, Broadalbin-Perth, Jadon Wert, Broadalbin-Perth, Lavon Fernandez, Catskill, Devon Haye, Catskill, Leviticus Johnson, Catskill, Royal Brown, Cohoes, Josh Kiefer, Coxsackie-Athens, Killian Schrader, Coxsackie-Athens, Kane Schrader, Coxsackie-Athens, Jackson Atty, Fonda, Noah Girard, Glens Falls, Nick Danahy, Glens Falls, David Barclay, Glens Falls, Damien Fiducia, Greenville, Joe Nicosia, Greenville, Jesse Kuzmich, Greenwich, Alex Curtis, Greenwich, Jon Kempf, Hoosick Falls, Tristan Williams, Hoosick Falls, Max Kipp, Hoosick Falls, Dayquan Griffin, Hudson, Noah Hedgepeth, Hudson, Isaiah Maines, Hudson, Josh Germain, Mechanicville, C.J. Bianchino, Ravena, Shane O’Dell, Schalmont, Jake Sanford, Schalmont, Owen Sherman, Schuylerville, Cayden Rutland, Schuylerville, Zachary Rice, Tamarac, Joey Poulin, Tamarac, J.J. Chestnut, Watervliet,


Class C Breakdown before the tournament starts.

bracket image from Section2boysbasketball.org


Class C Boys Winning Winning Winning Winning Computer
  Rd 16 QT. Final Semi Champ Projection
           
Voorheesville 83.27% 64.52% 50.60% 37.11% Favorite
Stillwater 56.74% 30.95% 16.77% 7.45% Dark Horse
Granville 62.44% 32.55% 17.01% 7.34% Dark Horse
Waterford 56.26% 31.10% 16.44% 7.19% Dark Horse
Lake George 66.32% 36.46% 12.84% 6.12% Dark Horse
Spa Catholic 51.99% 25.65% 12.98% 5.34% Dark Horse
Maple Hill 60.06% 32.76% 11.26% 5.26% Dark Horse
Berne-Knox 48.01% 22.74% 11.06% 4.35% Long Shot
Hadley-Luzerne 53.54% 15.96% 8.49% 3.95% Long Shot
Schoharie 43.74% 21.47% 10.01% 3.81% Long Shot
Fort Plain 43.26% 20.67% 9.81% 3.76% Long Shot
Rensselaer 46.46% 12.55% 6.24% 2.68% Long Shot
Cambridge/Salem/Duanesburg 37.56% 14.88% 5.92% 1.90% Long Shot
Galway 39.94% 17.82% 4.67% 1.72% Long Shot
Hoosic Valley/Mayfield 16.73% 6.98% 3.03% 1.11% Long Shot
Canajoharie 33.68% 12.96% 2.87% 0.91% Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes, Voorheesville. The Blackbirds led by Zaveon Little and Tanner Tedesco look like the team to beat.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

Ok. This should be interesting. It looks like three teams from the Wasaren League (#10 Stillwater, #11 Waterford, and #15 Spa Catholic) according to the numbers have a real possibility of winning a couple games and advancing. The Lake George/Maple Hill possible match-up in the quarter finals is interesting as well from a couple dark horse teams.

Additional thoughts:

This class will be a real test of the computer rankings vs. the seeding numbers. The lower half of the bracket has some higher seeds that will have tougher than expected early round games.

Players to watch: Zeke Pulliam, Berne-Knox, Mark Edwards, Berne-Knox, Brian Hall, Cambridge, Ben Epler, Cambridge, Derek Hyney, Canajoharie, Marcus Johnson, Canajoharie, Zachary Gamache, Duanesburg, Jakob Stahl, Duanesburg, Troy Butler, Fort Plain, Robert Jordan, Fort Plain, Carson Scribner, Galway, Jarett Williams, Granville, Josh Oakman, Granville, Danny McMahon, Hadley-Luzerne,Donald Harder, Hadley-Luzerne,Jon Fraser, Hadley-Luzerne, CJ Bassett, Hoosic Valley, Logan Reilly, Hoosic Valley, Luke Pelchar, Lake George, Cameron Orr, Lake George, Rian Jewett, Maple Hill, Blake Decker, Maple Hill, Kyle Capparello, Mayfield, Aidan Halloran, Mayfield, Andrew Johns, Middleburgh, Cameron Kenney, Middleburgh, Jacob Wood, Middleburgh, Brendan Henry, Middleburgh, Ramell Johnson, Rensselaer, Samir Lockhart, Rensselaer, Patrick Sullivan, Rensselaer, Jordan Catone, Aden Terry, Salem, Eli Truehart, Salem, Saratoga Central Catholic, Hayden Day, Saratoga Central Catholic, Robert Bolen III, Saratoga Central Catholic, Anthony Barile, Saratoga Central Catholic, Shane Helmstadt, Schoharie, John Blackwood, Schoharie, Brian McNeil, Stillwater, Josh Luca, Stillwater, Zaveon Little, Voorheesville, Tanner Tedesco, Voorheesville, Michael Talavera, Waterford, T.J. Kelley, Waterford,


Class D Breakdown before the tournament starts.

bracket image from Section2boysbasketball.org


Class D Boys Winning Winning Winning Winning Computer
  Rd 16 QT. Final Semi Champ Projection
           
North Warren 100.00% 87.88% 69.70% 50.98% Favorite
Argyle 100.00% 72.06% 48.73% 21.48% Contender
Northville 100.00% 81.34% 35.40% 11.54% Contender
Germantown 100.00% 50.98% 13.39% 5.83% Dark Horse
Hartford 100.00% 49.02% 12.51% 5.33% Dark Horse
Fort Ann 100.00% 27.94% 12.87% 3.17% Long Shot
OESJ 52.02% 6.56% 2.44% 0.76% Long Shot
Whitehall 47.98% 5.56% 1.96% 0.58% Long Shot
Fort Edward 62.01% 13.42% 2.40% 0.29% Long Shot
Loudonville Christian 37.99% 5.24% 0.59% 0.04% Long Shot

A few questions based on the numbers:

Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?

Yes. North Warren.

Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?

No. The draw is against #4 Hartford and #5 Germantown. It would take a great effor to knock off North Warren if the meeting took place in the semi finals.

Additional thoughts:

North Warren is the prohibited favorite but both Argyle and Northville could make things interesting if either of them were to get to the finals.

Players to watch: Peyton Lufkin, Argyle, Dylan Frost, Fort Ann, William Denton, Fort Edward, Bryan Bathrick, Germantown, Robbie Eaton, Germantown, Gavon Darfler, Hartford, Brandon Harrington, Hartford, Patrick Manella, Loudonville Christian, Cameron Simon, Loudonville Christian, Anthony Girard, North Warren, Tanner Dunkley, North Warren, Jason Ellsworth, Northville, Daniel VanNostrand, Northville, Travis Lafountain, OESJ,


 

 

 

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