Check out the latest bracket projections using the updated Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
Only 1 team between both the girls and boys side has won a Sectional title, since I’ve been running the numbers the last 5+ years, that hasn’t been classified as a “Favorite” or “Contender”. The 2017-18 Voorheesville girls team was considered a “Dark Horse” pre-tournament and took home the crown as the #6 seed.
Class AA Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. Green Tech and Niskayuna have slight advantages due to their byes but this class shows six teams with a legit chance to win the tournament according to the computer rankings.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Yes. #4 Shen, #5 Albany and #6 Ballston Spa all have the ability and top level players and coaches to get there.
Additional thoughts:
The top 5 teams in the classification are separated by three points. ONE BUCKET. That’s close. This classification is deeper than the top two seeds of Green Tech and Niskayuna even though those two teams have seemed likely on a collision course to meet for the title all season.
Two opening round games that look intriguing are Saratoga vs Bethlehem and La Salle vs Shaker.
Class A Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Hudson Falls grabs the honors as a slight favorite to win the tournament. Although if the seeds perform as they should they would have to play Mekeel Christian in the semi-finals, the projected second best team in the field.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 seed Amsterdam and #5 seed Scotia. Just missing the cut, as far as the numbers suggest, are Averill Park and Burnt Hills. However, Burnt Hills knocked off Hudson Falls early in the season and no one wants to see Averill Park in a half court, grind it out type of game, this time of the year.
Additional thoughts:
Lansingburgh vs Queensbury and Burnt Hills vs Gloversville both look like toss-up contests in the opening round.
Class B Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Tamarac is the clear favorite. They’ve played a competitive schedule outside of their league and ran through the Wasaren League unblemished.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Yes, a bunch. #4 Catholic Central, #5 Fonda, #6 Ichabod Crane, #7 Schuylerville, #8 Glens Falls. The seventh seeded Schuylerville Black Horses out of the Foothills Council have the second best chance, by the numbers, to cut down the nets. If the seeds play out accordingly a quarter-final tilt with # 2 Cohoes would be must watch.
Additional thoughts:
Fonda vs Broadalbin-Perth first round game looks like it should be close contest. The #5 seeded Braves aren’t getting any breaks playing the #12 seeded Patriots.
Class CC Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. Four teams are serious contenders: Stillwater, Hoosic Valley, Chatham, and Greenwich
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Hoosic Valley, #6 Greenwich and #7 Hoosick Falls look capable of winning a couple of games and getting to the semi-finals and beyond.
Additional thoughts:
Granville vs Saratoga Catholic in the 8/9 tilt should be a back and forth game.
Class C Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. #2 seeded Fort Plain Hilltoppers out of the Western Athletic Conference. They just lost in overtime to Fonda (Class B) in the WAC cup. Maple Hill from the Patroon Conference has the second best chance according to the year long rankings. They have shown the last couple of post seasons that they know how to defend and play team basketball. They are getting to be yearly visitors to the Cool Insuring Arena during tournament time.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Duanesburg out of the WAC. If the seeds hold up they could get another shot at #1 Maple Hill in the semi-finals to redeem an ealier loss to Wildcats on 2/7/22, 60-48.
Additional thoughts:
Early round matchups between Hadley-Luzerne vs Galway and Waterford vs Schohare seem likely to produce tight contests.
Class D Breakdown before the tournament starts.
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Not an overwhelming favorite. #1 Argyle, the Adirondack League Champs and #4 OESJ have slightly better chances than Northville and North Warren.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 OESJ is the only team outside of the top 3 that the computer rankings thinks has a legitimate shot at winning the title.
Additional thoughts:
Heatly vs Germantown and Fort Ann vs Salem appear to be ultra competitive first round games.