#1 seed Argyle. Photo from poststar.com
(Bracket)
Here’s a look at each team’s chances of winning each round of the tournament based on the most recent Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. New projections will be added as each bracket is knocked down to 8, 4 and 2 teams. The numbers will change based on each game played so as the bracket changes, so will each team’s chances of advancing.
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
(Semi-Final numbers)
| Class D Girls | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Argyle | 58.68% | 32.40% | Favorite |
| Hartford | 58.16% | 30.11% | Favorite |
| Fort Ann | 41.32% | 19.23% | Contender |
| Fort Edward | 41.84% | 18.26% | Contender |
(Quarter-Final numbers)
| Class D Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Argyle | 76.82% | 48.97% | 30.18% | Favorite |
| Hartford | 70.63% | 38.86% | 19.82% | Contender |
| Heatly | 51.21% | 26.51% | 12.38% | Contender |
| Fort Ann | 54.78% | 24.59% | 12.31% | Contender |
| Fort Edward | 48.79% | 24.69% | 11.24% | Contender |
| North Warren | 45.22% | 18.28% | 8.29% | Dark Horse |
| Whitehall | 29.37% | 9.94% | 3.06% | Long Shot |
| Loudonville Christian | 23.18% | 8.16% | 2.73% | Long Shot |
(Pre-Tournament numbers)
| Class D Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Open Rd | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Argyle | 100.00% | 76.18% | 53.23% | 32.85% | Favorite |
| Hartford | 100.00% | 72.10% | 40.32% | 21.21% | Contender |
| Heatly | 100.00% | 55.99% | 29.06% | 14.05% | Contender |
| Fort Edward | 73.42% | 36.89% | 19.23% | 9.35% | Dark Horse |
| Fort Ann | 62.92% | 38.35% | 16.10% | 7.60% | Dark Horse |
| North Warren | 73.16% | 36.46% | 13.62% | 5.76% | Dark Horse |
| Northville | 56.84% | 14.83% | 6.78% | 2.51% | Long Shot |
| Salem | 37.08% | 17.95% | 5.43% | 1.88% | Long Shot |
| Germantown | 50.05% | 13.97% | 4.67% | 1.45% | Long Shot |
| Whitehall | 49.95% | 13.93% | 4.65% | 1.44% | Long Shot |
| Loudonville Christian | 43.16% | 8.99% | 3.51% | 1.08% | Long Shot |
| New Lebanon | 26.58% | 7.12% | 2.07% | 0.55% | Long Shot |
| Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville | 26.84% | 7.24% | 1.32% | 0.28% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Is there a clear cut favorite(s)?
Yes, #1 seed Argyle. #2 Heatly and #3 Hartford are contenders.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could reach the final or win the classification?
Fort Edward, Fort Ann and North Warren are possible dark horse teams.
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