#1 seed Oppenheim-Ephratah/St. Johnsville looking to take home the title after advancing to the semi-finals last year. Photo by leaderherald.com
(Bracket)
Here’s a look at each team’s chances of winning each round of the tournament based on the most recent Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. New projections will be added as each bracket is knocked down to 8, 4 and 2 teams. The numbers will change based on each game played so as the bracket changes, so will each team’s chances of advancing.
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
(Semi-Final numbers)
| Class D Boys | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Whitehall | 76.67% | 52.52% | Favorite |
| Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville | 71.82% | 31.18% | Favorite |
| Germantown | 23.33% | 9.61% | Dark Horse |
| Argyle | 28.18% | 6.69% | Dark Horse |
(Quarter-Final numbers)
| Class D Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Whitehall | 85.07% | 70.52% | 48.04% | Favorite |
| Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville | 94.12% | 73.32% | 35.41% | Favorite |
| Germantown | 75.71% | 19.84% | 7.53% | Dark Horse |
| Argyle | 74.44% | 22.04% | 5.93% | Dark Horse |
| Fort Ann | 14.93% | 7.17% | 2.19% | Long Shot |
| Hartford | 24.29% | 2.47% | 0.42% | Long Shot |
| New Lebanon | 25.56% | 3.28% | 0.38% | Long Shot |
| Hawthorne Valley | 5.88% | 1.36% | 0.10% | Long Shot |
(Pre-tournament numbers)
| Class D Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Open Rd | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Whitehall | 97.81% | 85.34% | 70.60% | 47.67% | Favorite |
| Oppenheim-Ephratah/St Johnsville | 100.00% | 94.80% | 75.89% | 36.87% | Favorite |
| Germantown | 100.00% | 75.14% | 20.17% | 7.60% | Dark Horse |
| Argyle | 70.98% | 52.43% | 15.97% | 4.52% | Long Shot |
| Fort Ann | 63.36% | 10.57% | 5.09% | 1.55% | Long Shot |
| Fort Plain | 57.83% | 20.17% | 3.06% | 0.43% | Long Shot |
| Fort Edward | 29.02% | 15.54% | 2.38% | 0.34% | Long Shot |
| Northville | 54.62% | 14.49% | 1.73% | 0.32% | Long Shot |
| North Warren | 36.64% | 3.65% | 1.29% | 0.27% | Long Shot |
| Hartford | 45.38% | 10.37% | 1.04% | 0.17% | Long Shot |
| New Lebanon | 42.17% | 11.85% | 1.35% | 0.14% | Long Shot |
| Hawthorne Valley | 79.00% | 5.00% | 1.35% | 0.11% | Long Shot |
| Salem | 2.19% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | Long Shot |
| Loudonville Christian | 21.00% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Is there a clear cut favorite(s)?
Yes, 2 teams, Whitehall and OESJ.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could reach the final or win the classification?
No but, #3 Whitehall is the favorite for the tournament according to the current computer rankings. They would potentially line up to play Germantown in the semi-finals if both teams advance.
