#1 Lake George looking to repeat. Photo from Post Star.
(Bracket)
Here’s a look at each team’s chances of winning each round of the tournament based on the most recent Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. New projections will be added as each bracket is knocked down to 8, 4 and 2 teams. The numbers will change based on each game played so as the bracket changes, so will each team’s chances of advancing.
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
(Semi-Final numbers)
| Class C Boys | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Lake George | 84.41% | 59.35% | Favorite |
| Hoosick Falls | 70.86% | 28.89% | Favorite |
| Maple Hill | 29.14% | 6.66% | Dark Horse |
| Saratoga Central Catholic | 15.59% | 5.10% | Dark Horse |
(Quarter-Final numbers)
| Class C Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Lake George | 86.30% | 73.19% | 52.26% | Favorite |
| Hoosick Falls | 84.38% | 61.90% | 29.15% | Favorite |
| Maple Hill | 55.69% | 19.34% | 5.46% | Dark Horse |
| Granville | 50.10% | 10.19% | 3.49% | Long Shot |
| Saratoga Central Catholic | 49.90% | 10.12% | 3.45% | Long Shot |
| Mayfield | 44.31% | 13.28% | 3.20% | Long Shot |
| Stillwater | 13.70% | 6.49% | 2.07% | Long Shot |
| Greenville | 15.62% | 5.48% | 0.91% | Long Shot |
(Pre-tournament numbers)
| Class C Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Prelim | Open Rd | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Lake George | 100.00% | 94.28% | 83.90% | 72.94% | 54.37% | Favorite |
| Hoosick Falls | 100.00% | 90.32% | 73.96% | 51.90% | 23.51% | Contender |
| Schoharie | 100.00% | 71.55% | 46.76% | 21.32% | 7.15% | Dark Horse |
| Maple Hill | 100.00% | 79.24% | 35.95% | 13.13% | 3.40% | Long Shot |
| Granville | 100.00% | 61.37% | 33.16% | 7.13% | 2.61% | Long Shot |
| Berne-Knox | 100.00% | 59.07% | 14.80% | 5.81% | 1.18% | Long Shot |
| Duanesburg | 85.64% | 47.02% | 24.69% | 5.20% | 1.87% | Long Shot |
| Saratoga Central Catholic | 100.00% | 50.48% | 24.06% | 4.36% | 1.38% | Long Shot |
| Stillwater | 100.00% | 56.88% | 8.72% | 4.27% | 1.41% | Long Shot |
| Mayfield | 81.42% | 26.76% | 13.08% | 3.97% | 0.83% | Long Shot |
| Middleburgh | 79.08% | 35.06% | 16.97% | 3.07% | 0.97% | Long Shot |
| Greenville | 100.00% | 40.93% | 7.74% | 2.40% | 0.37% | Long Shot |
| Greenwich | 100.00% | 43.12% | 5.15% | 2.17% | 0.59% | Long Shot |
| Galway | 75.87% | 5.36% | 2.17% | 0.80% | 0.18% | Long Shot |
| Hadley-Luzerne | 62.91% | 7.31% | 2.86% | 0.75% | 0.10% | Long Shot |
| Cambridge | 59.14% | 13.84% | 2.86% | 0.45% | 0.05% | Long Shot |
| Canajoharie | 40.86% | 6.92% | 1.03% | 0.12% | 0.01% | Long Shot |
| Corinth | 37.09% | 2.37% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.01% | Long Shot |
| Rensselaer | 20.92% | 3.57% | 0.72% | 0.04% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Waterford | 18.58% | 1.68% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Berlin | 14.36% | 2.49% | 0.41% | 0.02% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
| Hoosic Valley | 24.13% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Is there a clear cut favorite(s)?
Yes. Defending champ and currently undefeated Lake George looks to repeat as champ. Hoosick Falls is their biggest threat.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could reach the final or win the classification?
No. #3 Schoharie is a dark horse but they’ll have to figure out a way to defend the post, being undersized, and shoot it fantastic from deep. They are one of the better shooting teams in the Section (all classes) but it will still be a tough task. #6 Maple Hill is playing good team basketball and has the possibility of matching up with Schoharie in the quarter finals.
