#1 seed Saratoga looks to capture Class AA crown.
(Bracket)
Here’s a look at each team’s chances of winning each round of the tournament based on the most recent Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. New projections will be added as each bracket is knocked down to 8, 4 and 2 teams. The numbers will change based on each game played so as the bracket changes, so will each team’s chances of advancing.
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
(Semi-Final numbers)
| Class AA Boys | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Saratoga Springs | 51.38% | 27.13% | Favorite |
| Colonie | 48.62% | 25.01% | Favorite |
| CBA | 50.19% | 24.07% | Contender |
| Shenendehowa | 49.81% | 23.79% | Contender |
(Quarter-Final numbers)
| Class AA Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Saratoga Springs | 68.96% | 37.15% | 21.10% | Contender |
| Shenendehowa | 62.88% | 36.18% | 18.85% | Contender |
| CBA | 67.75% | 35.86% | 18.02% | Contender |
| Colonie | 57.48% | 31.74% | 17.82% | Contender |
| Troy | 42.52% | 20.36% | 9.93% | Dark Horse |
| Shaker | 37.12% | 16.62% | 6.53% | Dark Horse |
| La Salle | 31.04% | 10.74% | 4.04% | Long Shot |
| Bethlehem | 32.25% | 11.33% | 3.70% | Long Shot |
(Pre-tournament numbers)
| Class AA Boys | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Open Rd | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Saratoga Springs | 100.00% | 69.68% | 39.19% | 22.34% | Contender |
| Shenendehowa | 100.00% | 63.89% | 37.87% | 19.93% | Contender |
| CBA | 90.11% | 64.58% | 34.63% | 17.73% | Contender |
| Colonie | 87.33% | 55.57% | 30.75% | 17.34% | Contender |
| Troy | 78.25% | 36.86% | 17.50% | 8.48% | Dark Horse |
| Green Tech | 50.31% | 18.24% | 8.39% | 3.27% | Long Shot |
| Shaker | 49.69% | 17.87% | 8.17% | 3.16% | Long Shot |
| Bethlehem | 59.76% | 21.71% | 7.64% | 2.53% | Long Shot |
| Ballston Spa | 52.55% | 16.49% | 6.22% | 2.38% | Long Shot |
| La Salle | 47.45% | 13.83% | 4.90% | 1.76% | Long Shot |
| Columbia | 40.24% | 11.33% | 3.02% | 0.75% | Long Shot |
| Guilderland | 21.75% | 4.64% | 0.95% | 0.20% | Long Shot |
| Albany | 12.67% | 2.93% | 0.48% | 0.08% | Long Shot |
| Catholic Central | 9.89% | 2.38% | 0.28% | 0.03% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Is there a clear cut favorite(s)?
No. Looks like 4 prime contenders (Saratoga, Shenendehowa, CBA & Colonie) based on the way the bracket is set up. Troy is looming as the Dark Horse.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could reach the final or win the classification?
Yes. Colonie as the #4 seed and Troy as the #5 seed.
(Columbia at Bethlehem game on 2/21 is at 5:30 p.m. not 7)
CBA vs CCHS game on 2/21 is at 6 p.m. not 7)