#1 seed Shenendehowa looks to repeat as champs.
(Bracket)
Here’s a look at each team’s chances of winning each round of the tournament based on the most recent Section2Basketball.com computer rankings. New projections will be added as each bracket is knocked down to 8, 4 and 2 teams. The numbers will change based on each game played so as the bracket changes, so will each team’s chances of advancing.
Each team is automatically classified into 4 categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
(Semi-Final numbers)
| Class AA Girls | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Shenendehowa | 70.37% | 54.40% | Favorite |
| Bethlehem | 29.63% | 17.34% | Contender |
| Colonie | 56.13% | 17.09% | Contender |
| Shaker | 43.87% | 11.16% | Contender |
(Quarter-Final numbers)
| Class AA Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Shenendehowa | 94.17% | 70.80% | 57.76% | Favorite |
| Bethlehem | 55.30% | 16.57% | 10.11% | Contender |
| Colonie | 59.05% | 32.22% | 9.15% | Dark Horse |
| Catholic Central | 53.84% | 27.42% | 7.18% | Dark Horse |
| Saratoga Springs | 44.70% | 11.53% | 6.44% | Dark Horse |
| Shaker | 46.16% | 21.74% | 5.07% | Dark Horse |
| Albany | 40.95% | 18.62% | 4.02% | Long Shot |
| Columbia | 5.83% | 1.10% | 0.28% | Long Shot |
(Pre-Tournament numbers)
| Class AA Girls | Winning | Winning | Winning | Winning | Computer |
| Open Rd | QT. Final | Semi | Champ | Projection | |
| Shenendehowa | 100.00% | 92.46% | 69.52% | 56.85% | Favorite |
| Colonie | 100.00% | 66.34% | 37.00% | 10.66% | Contender |
| Bethlehem | 100.00% | 55.30% | 16.91% | 10.38% | Contender |
| Saratoga Springs | 100.00% | 44.70% | 11.80% | 6.63% | Dark Horse |
| Catholic Central | 87.55% | 46.46% | 23.65% | 6.15% | Dark Horse |
| Shaker | 100.00% | 51.78% | 24.80% | 5.89% | Dark Horse |
| Albany | 81.22% | 31.41% | 13.96% | 2.84% | Long Shot |
| Niskayuna | 62.06% | 5.63% | 1.45% | 0.49% | Long Shot |
| Columbia | 37.94% | 1.90% | 0.32% | 0.08% | Long Shot |
| Guilderland | 18.78% | 2.26% | 0.35% | 0.02% | Long Shot |
| Troy | 12.45% | 1.75% | 0.24% | 0.01% | Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Is there a clear cut favorite(s)?
Yes. Shenendehowa is an overwhelming favorite to repeat. Colonie, Bethlehem, Saratoga, Catholic Central and Shaker look to contend as well.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could reach the final or win the classification?
Three of them. Bethlehem, Saratoga & Catholic Central
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